By J. Lyn Carl, GalleryWatch.com
Austin, TX – The political clock is ticking on the 78th Texas Legislature and with less than a month before the June 2 sine die date, "The calendar, not politics, will derail most of the legislation," says Austin political consultant Tony Proffitt.
As of Monday morning, there had been 2,775 Senate and 4,972 House bills filed, totaling 4,747 bills alone (not including joint, concurrent and simple resolutions). Also as of this morning, only 62 bills have been passed by the House and Senate.
"Choke-down rules" as they're known, are fast approaching, said Proffitt. The last day for House committees to report House bills and joint resolutions is less than two weeks away, on May 12.
"These are deadlines for action under House and Senate rules beginning with May 12," said Proffitt, "and each succeeding day, the legislative process will be tightened down further and further and further until May 31, which is the total cutoff for legislation. The only thing left after that is conference committees reports on June 1 and technical corrections on June 2."
Of course, rules are made to be broken and the House is notorious for rewriting and suspending rules. It could well happen again.
Proffitt, former political adviser and spokesman for the late Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock, said the number of bills filed during the 78th Legislature is a comparable figure to the number filed in the 77th, but noted "very few have reached the governor's desk" by the first of May.
He notes there are a significant number of bills whose fates are still to be decided, "and some are major legislation."
Proffitt said the legislature has a tendency to "push aside" a lot of bills that are not classified as major legislation, and those "will end up in the legislative waste can."
But there are still some bills out there addressing hot-button issues, according to the local political guru.
First, there's the budget. "That bill has to go through," he said.
"Then there's a lot of insurance bills left. A lot of members campaigned on insurance reform and SB 14, which addresses homeowner and auto insurance rates, is lurking around the House somewhere.
"The House passed the civil justice bill (HB 4), but now the Senate is working it over with (Sen. Bill) Ratliff's substitute.
"There are a lot of gaming bills floating around out there. Most will be attached or members will attempt to attach them to the lottery (commission) sunset bill. If they don't pass, it won't be for lack of effort. But the governor is not crazy about expanding gambling and neither are the Speaker and a lot of other GOP members.
"The franchise tax bill is still floating around out there, with an attempt to close the Delaware Sub loophole in it.
"School vouchers are still around.
"And there's still school finance to be dealt with. The Senate is moving full steam ahead on school finance. The question is when it gets to the House, what its health status will be - will it be hanging on or will it be dead on arrival?"
Gov. Rick Perry has indicated a special session to address school finance is likely, but has also said he will not call that session until there is some consensus on a proposed solution. Even so, Proffitt says the Senate bill that includes expanding the state sales tax base while reducing property taxes, will be "a major component" of any special session on school finance. "Even if the House doesn't like the Senate bill," said Proffitt, "they can't avoid it. It may provide a major point of departure, but it will also be a major point of debate."
So as the legislative clock keeps ticking, what legislation may actually see the light of day? "There is major legislation that is in one chamber but not both," said Proffitt, "and a lot certainly hasn't gotten to the governor. So there are literally thousands of bills that if they don't get legislative action in the next week or so, will be consigned to the dead bill file."
The longtime political insider predicts maybe one-third of the more than 4,700 pieces of legislation filed will make it through the process. Among those that probably will make it to the governor's desk are those that address the budget, insurance, tort reform, redistricting, the franchise tax fix and sunset legislation affecting both large and small state agencies.
"The major issues legislation is still alive and on track," he said, "and can be worked out in the next 30 days. And minor legislation affecting public policy also will likely make it through. Other legislation is likely just to fall by the wayside, the victim of the clock running out - there are only so many hours in the day, and only so many hearings that can be attended..."
Proffitt said some say the major role of the State Legislature is not to pass bills, but to kill bad bills, and that is what the legislative process is designed to do.
"The clock is running out real fast on the 78th Legislature," he said. "By their own rules, they will start killing bills procedurally because of the deadlines, and they will be spending more and more time on the major legislation that has to pass.
"The expiration date is fast approaching. The calendar says one thing, but reality says something else."
Tick-tock, tick-tock...